Hold onto your seats, because the box office is serving up a thrilling mix of triumphs and surprises this weekend! While 'Black Phone 2' rings in a solid $10.7 million opening day, Aziz Ansari's 'Good Fortune' seems to have run out of luck. But here's where it gets controversial: Is the horror genre dominating the fall season, or are audiences simply craving familiar titles in a sea of sequels? Let's dive in.
Blumhouse’s highly anticipated horror sequel, Black Phone 2, is poised to claim the top spot with an estimated $24.4 million three-day total across 3,411 North American theaters. This puts it slightly ahead of its 2022 predecessor, which debuted at $23.6 million. With Ethan Hawke reprising his role as the chilling Grabber, the film also benefits from premium large format screenings, thanks to a strategic shift from Tron: Ares. But this is the part most people miss: Despite the strong start, Black Phone 2 carries a heftier $30 million production budget, meaning it’ll need to sustain momentum to turn a profit. Critics and audiences are generally positive, though Cinema Score’s “B” grade is a slight dip from the original’s “B+.” Can it replicate the first film’s sleeper hit success, which quadrupled its opening to reach $90 million domestically? Only time will tell.
Meanwhile, Blumhouse is banking on this win after a disappointing 2025 lineup, including Wolf Man, The Woman in the Yard, Drop, and M3GAN 2.0, none of which broke out. The studio isn’t done yet, though—Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is set to spook audiences in December. But here’s the question: Are audiences growing fatigued with Blumhouse’s formula, or is this just a temporary slump? Sound off in the comments!
On the flip side, Lionsgate’s Good Fortune, a $30 million R-rated comedy written, directed, and starring Aziz Ansari, is struggling with a projected $5.9 million opening from 2,985 locations. Despite a star-studded cast including Keanu Reeves, Seth Rogen, Sandra Oh, and Keke Palmer, the film earned just $2.4 million on its first day. Even solid reviews and a “B+” Cinema Score haven’t been enough to ignite interest. This raises a bigger question: In today’s theatrical landscape, is there still room for original comedies, or are audiences only showing up for franchises and familiar IP?
In other news, Disney’s Tron: Ares continues its steep decline, dropping 65% in its second weekend to $11 million. With a North American total of $54 million and a massive $180 million budget, the sci-fi sequel is unlikely to break even in theaters. Warner Bros.’ awards contender One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, is holding steady in fourth place but has only grossed $59 million domestically against a $130 million budget—a projected $100 million loss. Ouch.
Rounding out the top five is Paramount’s Roofman, starring Channing Tatum, which is expected to drop 55% in its second weekend to $3.6 million. Even with a modest $19 million budget, its $15.4 million domestic total is underwhelming. Meanwhile, Angel Studios’ WWII drama Truth & Treason is eyeing a $2.8 million debut in sixth place, earning a stellar “A” Cinema Score—typical for the studio’s faith-based audience. Amazon MGM’s After the Hunt, directed by Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, and Ayo Edebiri, is expanding to 1,238 theaters but struggling with a “C-” Cinema Score after negative reviews from the Venice Film Festival.
So, what’s the takeaway? Horror sequels are thriving, original comedies are floundering, and even star power isn’t a guaranteed ticket to success. Is Hollywood too reliant on sequels and franchises, or are audiences simply voting with their wallets? Let us know what you think—and which of these films you’ll be catching this weekend!
